With only four-and-a-half months to go before the first votes are cast in the Republican Party’s presidential nomination race, it appears to be Donald Trump’s race to lose.
The brash billionaire has gained the support of a majority of GOP primary voters, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released October 15. Trump captured a commanding lead of 30 points over his nearest rival, Texas senator Ted Cruz, who held just 16 percent of the support.
Trump’s success in the polls is a result of his populist, antiestablishment message, which has resonated with Republican voters. He has pushed a hard line on immigration and a call for an end to “political correctness.” In addition, Trump has attacked political opponents with abandon, which has given his campaign the momentum it needs to remain on top.
However, Trump’s lead is not insurmountable. His lack of experience in political office, coupled with his penchant for inflammatory remarks, could cost him in the long run if voters become disillusioned with the candidate. Additionally, his overall support among Republicans is much lower than the numbers found in the Quinnipiac poll. The RealClearPolitics polling average for the GOP race shows Trump with an 8-point lead over Cruz, with the bulk of his support coming from self-identified moderate Republicans.
One of the biggest factors that could determine who wins the GOP nomination is the performance of third-place candidate Ben Carson. If Carson’s support continues to decline, as it has been, that could spell trouble for Trump, as he would be fighting for the same conservative voters that Carson is.
The upcoming Republican debates will also be a key factor in deciding who wins the nomination. If Trump continues to dominate the stage and Cruz and Carson fail to break through with a meaningful progressive vision, then it is likely that Trump will have the edge going into the first primary votes.
In the end, the race for the Republican presidential nomination is coming down to the wire. Donald Trump has a strong lead at the important four-and-a-half month mark, but with the first votes being cast in early February, there is still a lot of time for things to change. It remains to be seen which candidate will be able to capitalize on the frontrunner’s weaknesses and secure the GOP nomination.
